HTML5 competes directly with Flash, not jQuery. Even if you talk about jQuery replacing some applications of flash like image galleries, etc., it's not jQuery alone doing it, other frameworks like YUI and MooTools are doing it too. I think Flash is already becoming less common around the web and in a few years from now it might even become obsolete. Even if it would continue to exist it won't be the first choice of web developers as most of what can be done in Flash might be supported by HTML/CSS/JS without the need of a premium software or much of a training.
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