A recent analysts stated Facebook will die in 5-8 years as reported by CNET. I think this is true but there is a way out if they act fast.
First their was AOL, then Yahoo had MyYahoo which was followed by MySpace and now Facebook. What do these have in common? They are portal sites to news and your contacts. They all have a life span which is short as they are easily replaced. Look at Yahoo's share price now and compare it to 2000. Do the same for AOL or for MySpace only a few years ago. Facebook is going the same way. It's (second market) share price was highest in 2011 when it hovered around $43. At IPO launch it was only $38 so it was already falling and it's now back to it's 2010 price. It's growth is already slowing.
Facebook needs to purchase HTC Mobile and Opera to survive long term. They can't buy RIM as it's too fucked up and Nokia is too closely linked with Microsoft. Amazon has gone it's own route with the Kindle Fire while Samsung is just too expensive. RocketMelt is a bloated version of Google Chrome and you can't buy Chrome, Safari or Internet Explorer. They can't buy Mozilla FireFox or it's Boot to Gecko OS as it's open source and Google has both Motorola and Android. Apple speaks for itself.
As everyone has being saying for years now the future is mobile and an App like Instagram is useless if you don't own a Mobile OS, Browser and manufacture to back it up. Facebook currently have none of these which is reflected in it's share price. If Apple announce Photo Sharing in iCloud at next week's WWDC as rumored it could potentially kill half of Instagram over night and their is nothing Facebook could do about it.
If it doesn't make some big mobile purchases and I don't mean apps in the next year it will lose popularity over the next 5-8 years like the other portals have before it.
What do you think Facebook has to do to survive in a world dominated by mobiles and tablets? Can it survive without a Mobile OS, Browser or it's own phone?
First their was AOL, then Yahoo had MyYahoo which was followed by MySpace and now Facebook. What do these have in common? They are portal sites to news and your contacts. They all have a life span which is short as they are easily replaced. Look at Yahoo's share price now and compare it to 2000. Do the same for AOL or for MySpace only a few years ago. Facebook is going the same way. It's (second market) share price was highest in 2011 when it hovered around $43. At IPO launch it was only $38 so it was already falling and it's now back to it's 2010 price. It's growth is already slowing.
Facebook needs to purchase HTC Mobile and Opera to survive long term. They can't buy RIM as it's too fucked up and Nokia is too closely linked with Microsoft. Amazon has gone it's own route with the Kindle Fire while Samsung is just too expensive. RocketMelt is a bloated version of Google Chrome and you can't buy Chrome, Safari or Internet Explorer. They can't buy Mozilla FireFox or it's Boot to Gecko OS as it's open source and Google has both Motorola and Android. Apple speaks for itself.
As everyone has being saying for years now the future is mobile and an App like Instagram is useless if you don't own a Mobile OS, Browser and manufacture to back it up. Facebook currently have none of these which is reflected in it's share price. If Apple announce Photo Sharing in iCloud at next week's WWDC as rumored it could potentially kill half of Instagram over night and their is nothing Facebook could do about it.
If it doesn't make some big mobile purchases and I don't mean apps in the next year it will lose popularity over the next 5-8 years like the other portals have before it.
What do you think Facebook has to do to survive in a world dominated by mobiles and tablets? Can it survive without a Mobile OS, Browser or it's own phone?
Last edited:
