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Depends entirely on how soon they find you. If you post a link on a highly trafficked source like Reddit then Google will pick you up within a few hours.

I'm sure it will be allowed. As long as you don't deal in pornographic, ultra-violent or illegal content then Adf.ly should work fine for you. Just to let you know I will launching an alternative to adf.ly that will earn publishers like yourself a lot more money for the same effort, so stay tuned.

I agree. It is best to invest in quality traffic otherwise you won't see any returns or you'll end up with extremely high bounce rates which will affect everything from your SEO to your bottom line. If what you offer is valuable then don't be scared to pay the price to get the users you want...

If the forum is highly targeted to the interests of your customers, else I would stick with the proven high quality paid traffic sources like Adwords or Bing ads.

From my experience, porn sites don't make any money these days. I would look at finding a solution to a problem you have or other people have, then building that. If the problem is big enough you will make money selling the solution. That is guaranteed.